Analysis Qualifying | How Verstappen crushed the competition by dancing like a primadonna between the white lines

This year we have been seeing strange weather all along, resulting in the rain in Monaco and Spain for the Grands Prix. We are now seeing the same thing at the beautiful Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal, Canada, on the Île Notre-Dame (Notre-Dame Island, ed.), which lies in the St. Lawrence River. It's actually a street circuit, and the weather conditions, even normally in June, are quite variable in this part of the North American continent. The forecast was rain for part of Friday and an even wetter Saturday, both the final free practice and qualifying, and that came true. Naturally, that promises very exciting sessions, with rapidly changing times throughout qualifying. F1Maximaal is at it again to analyze the numbers and performance.

This track is quite friendly to the tires, which is why Pirelli has chosen the three softest compounds at its disposal hards, mediums and softs. The track is not only green again due to the rain, but also wet, which means that with each lap the asphalt becomes very much faster. The running cars remove the water with hundreds of gallons of water as they turn their laps, which means lap times will go down by seconds per lap. We also saw this happen in free practice three.

For the drivers, it is extremely important to get enough heat into the tires to achieve an optimal temperature for maximum grip, which is not easy due to the water that cools both the asphalt and tires quickly and severely. We are likely to see drivers driving two warm-up laps regularly to generate that proper temperature. In addition, they will continue to drive many laps in succession, to take maximum advantage of the ever-improving and therefore faster asphalt. Whoever drives a good lap last could easily achieve pole position.

In these types of conditions, where performance depends much more on the driver and his skill and insight, you often see different drivers emerge than in dry conditions. Not only do you have to select the right tires in consultation with your team, often depending on the situation at the time, but you also have to be able to feel perfect what you can and cannot do with the car. Furthermore, the weather is also expected to improve towards the end of qualifying, which in turn means that it is extremely important to choose the right moment to switch to possible slicks, the red tires in this case, or vice versa if conditions change again.

However, you want to do the latter before the start of a new session, because going back from dry track tires to wet track tires during the same session is always unfavourable for the speed at which a lap can be driven. This is because the differences are so great that after setting a time on, say, a soft tire, the time cannot be improved even in the best wet conditions on a tire suitable for that situation. You are talking about a difference of easily two to five seconds and even more. In any case, we are going to see and experience it.

Zhou has a sensor problem, and Gasly explodes

The circuit is very short, just over four kilometres, which means that the track will be very crowded, along with the damp asphalt. Not an ideal situation for the drivers, but with enough distance and the rubber in the right temperature tire, it can result in fantastic times here. Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc proved this earlier in free practice three, collectively putting the rest of the field at a great distance. The question, of course, is whether the better drivers will succeed again here. As usual, both Williams drivers are again the first on the asphalt of the track.

What happens there? Zhou Guanyu is having trouble, after less than a minute, no power. He's still just driving, in first gear. He stalls in turn 7, we have a yellow flag! With fourteen and a half minutes left on the clock, the red flag is waved, and only three drivers have set a time, Alexander Albon, Logan Sargeant and Valtteri Bottas. For everyone else, that now means a restart of the laps they had already started. Zhou, however, in consultation with his team, was able to restart the car, driving awfully slowly back to his garage, apparently with a possible sensor problem.

With Zhou safely back on his home track, everyone quickly rejoins the pit lane at the stoplight, Max Verstappen and Sergio Pérez in front. Everyone heads right back out, as more rain is expected, and everyone wants to beat that rainwater to set another good time before it comes pouring down. Zhou had it fixed very quickly by his mechanics, and he can get on with qualifying. Verstappen does not lose a moment, crushing the time previously clocked by Albon, instantly three seconds faster! Sergio Pérez follows, but he is 2.7 seconds slower.

The fastest time is now a low 1:24, and with a difference of a whopping 2.7 seconds to number two, it will be clear that a whole string of drivers is nestling into this huge gap. Then, however, it is Fernando Alonso's turn, and he hits quite a gap himself, taking over P1 by a whopping half a second. Verstappen, however, is already on his next fast lap, driving a purple sector 1, a purple sector 2, then purple 3, and is seven-tenths faster again, and the first under 1:23! In less than eight minutes of total driving time, this has already improved the best time by five seconds.

With every meter driven that it is not raining, the track is rubbering in, and being driven drier and drier, and the progression in times is just am-az-ing-feeling! Meanwhile, Pérez has managed to narrow the gap to his teammate, and is now on P3 with "only" about a second and a half between the two teammates, while Alonso turns on again and manages to put a purple Sector 1 behind him. Pérez and Leclerc have some problems taking too much kerb, and end up having to take the shortcut at turns 4 and 8. This is expected to happen more often.

Alonso takes over P1 again, with another purple sector, and a green one, almost two-tenths of a second faster than his Dutch rival, who is of course still recharging his batteries for another lap while of course also trying to keep the tire temperature at the right level. Everyone is constantly working to improve their time, and driving and reducing fuel load obviously helps with that as well. Verstappen demonstrates this by now in turn conquering not two, but even three purple sectors and taking almost seven-tenths on Alonso, becoming the first with a time under 1:22, with seven minutes to go in this session.

Lewis Hamilton has managed to find a place in the top ten, but Russell is currently still outside the top fifteen, so something clearly needs to happen there if he is to make Q2. Pérez is also looking at a huge gap, of almost 1.6 seconds, while Leclerc manages to approach the current world champion in just over a quarter of a second. The suspense clearly remains there. With almost six seconds nibbled off the first fast lap time, and over six minutes to go, we wonder what else is possible.

Alonso comes up with a first answer, by going around just six hundredths slower than Verstappen. That means Verstappen is now on P1, followed by Alonso at six hundredths, Leclerc at a quarter of a second, and then a one-second gap to Sainz, which increases to 2.7 seconds on P20. It also seems that the track is getting drier, and the question becomes whether the dry-weather shoes can be used, a question that Gianpiero Lambiase, his race engineer, also asks Verstappen. He resolutely states that this is absolutely not yet possible.

Russell manages to improve his time significantly, to P4, so for now he seems to be back equally safe. Hamilton then goes to P3 despite a drift à la kart, and Leclerc improves his time as well, taking over P3 again. Verstappen does the same and is now over three-tenths ahead. Two minutes to go, who will make it? In practice at most one more fast lap to go for everyone. Now Alonso takes over P1 again over, by one and a half tenths. Verstappen, however, isn't done yet either, but Neither is Alonso himself yet. Alonso grabs a purple 1, then Verstappen again grabs a purple 1, the same with sector 2, and Alonso then finishes a quarter of a second faster than Verstappen's earlier time. The latter, however, hits back hard, over six tenths faster, and thus gains almost a second in that last lap!

The positions behind are also still constantly changing, it is really racing to the limit to secure a spot for Q2. Albon captures P6, and Pérez makes it to P9. Gasly is hindered very badly, by Sainz, and just explodes over the board radio. This could well mean a grid penalty for the Spaniard, but that won't help Gasly, as he doesn't make it to Q2 as a result. Both AlphaTauris are also out, as are Sargeant and Zhou, see Table 1. In this session, the fastest time in eighteen minutes was improved by a whopping seven seconds, and what a fine sight it was to see this happen!

Had the drivers been able to drive their best sector times back to back, the results could have been slightly different, see Table 2. In any case, it seems that Gasly was really wrongly hindered, he could easily have made Q2 without the unwanted opposition. As always, this does not really help, because even if the hindering driver gets a penalty for it, it usually does not get the aggrieved driver to the spot he could have achieved. Furthermore, Stroll would not have made it then because Hülkenberg would have passed him, and Gasly because he would not have been hindered. Leclerc could also have moved up a spot, but that wouldn't have mattered for a place in Q2 because he would have gained it anyway.

Strong decision Williams puts Albon on P1 in Q2

At the start of Q2, Verstappen is back in front at the end of the pit lane, more rain is expected. Incidentally, it has just been announced that Tsunoda will also be investigated for interference. By the way, it looks like the track is pretty dry at the moment, Norris indicates so, and so does Leclerc, and apparently Albon is already running on slicks. Is this going to work? Albon complains about it, but he is asked to do a lap on the soft tires anyway. Verstappen sets the first time, immediately half a second faster than his best lap in Q1. Stroll spins around in Turn 6, just touching the wall with his wing, but is lucky and comes to a halt on the exit strip, without significant damage, and can continue his drive.

Albon, meanwhile, doesn't realize too good a time, but what is significant is that he clocked the fastest Sector 3 so far. That means everyone will now come in for a set of softs, and Verstappen was right away the first to respond. This is going to be incredibly exciting again, as rain is expected again in six to seven minutes. The weather gods are certainly helping to make this one of the most exciting qualifying sessions ever! It is important to get the tires up to working temperature quickly, and above all to follow the racing line, because just outside of that it is still wet, with potentially fatal excursions as a result.

Russell takes over P1 now, but Albon goes half a second faster on the red footwear, and Verstappen, who is now also on the red, signals that it is starting to rain. Is it already too late for the slick tires? Albon does another fast lap, a second faster now. What a good gamble by Williams and Albon! Only Alonso and Hamilton and Stroll are still on inters. Verstappen picks up P2, despite the rain now falling, though it's not much. Pérez goes back into the pit, changing back to intermediates. In two to three minutes more rain will come, only if the tire is warm enough do you have any chance of a good lap now with the red-hued footwear. The times on the slicks still seem okay, but the rain will not make driving any easier. Pérez clearly couldn't cope, but he is now on P12, maybe he can still do something with his wet-weather tires? Hamilton is now also out on inters, as is Russell and a few more drivers, and it's starting to rain much harder now.

The drivers who went back to the green footwear just missed the sweet spot for the soft tires, and Leclerc is not happy because his team insisted that he had to set a time on his intermediates first. The big shock of this session is that Leclerc and Pérez did not make Q3, and Hamilton, with luck, just made it, see also Table 3. Apparently, Williams has a very good weather forecasting system. It is not the first time they have timed it quite correctly with tire changes for changing weather conditions.

Had the FIA used best sector times instead of best laps for a qualifying session, the results would have looked quite different, especially in the lower half of the timesheet, see Table 4. It is notable that Hülkenberg would not have made Q3, but Leclerc would have. Also, the positions achieved would have been quite different, with Hamilton ahead of Russell, and Sainz ahead of Alonso as well. The top four would have remained the same, which proves how well Williams assessed the conditions with a perfect weather forecast and adjusted strategy. Hats off!

Verstappen crushes the competition utterly

The rain continues to fall in Q3, and there also appears to be a huge front coming up. Verstappen is the first out, Red Bull and Verstappen take no chances, with Ocon right behind him. Everyone gives each other plenty of room, with all this water it's better to have some distance to avoid getting each other into trouble. Verstappen goes mad to warm up the tires as quickly as possible. Then he posts his first clocked lap, dancing between the white lines like a primadonna with his Red Bull, realizing a 1:27. Alonso again goes on a rampage like a beast but he falls just short, two-tenths slower.

Verstappen is already on another clocked lap. Hamilton now takes P3, with Russell on P4. Then suddenly a yellow flag is waved in Sector 2, Piastri spins and parks the back of his car into the wall with a bang, and that is clearly the end of the race for him. Verstappen, however, crushes the competition by going 1.4 seconds faster than his Spanish rival, Alonso, who was on P2. Incredible!!! And then it is Hülkenberg who takes over second place, 1.2 seconds behind Verstappen, and immediately after that the red flag appears for Piastri. No one can set a time now until the McLaren is removed and a restart takes place.

If the rain stays like this, however, no one is going to be able to set another good lap. With seven minutes to go, drivers will still try to improve times, after all, there is still quite a bit of space between what is currently P1 and P10. Moreover, Albon's time has been removed due to track limits, so he will certainly want to try again. Everyone, except for Piastri of course, is already doing another outlap. Verstappen indicates indicating over the board radio that it's a whole lot worse, and there's a lot more rain on the way. Alonso is clearly having problems with the wet road surface, it is not going his way as he would like.

The Limburger goes back in, as does Hülkenberg. Alonso tries anyway, but also gives up, with Hamilton, Russell and Alonso the last to return to their respective garages. That's it, it doesn't get any better. The results from Table 5 remain. And the best sectors of each driver change only position two and three, with Alonso ahead of Hülkenberg, see Table 6. What a qualifying session this was, with continuous improvements of time by everyone, every time, and with big jumps, which also meant that everyone had to keep going. There were no breather breaks. And then you see a Verstappen who makes it look easy to punch impossible holes over and over again, and just gracefully dancing between the white lines manages to get his car to the top spot again and again like it's nothing.

If Sunday's race shows images like this qualifying, we can only be happy, although it could be nerve-wracking. There is a possibility that it will remain dry throughout the race, in which case it will be a very exciting battle for the podium places at the top as well since everything seems to be quite close together in terms of long runs. In addition, Leclerc and Pérez will have to play catch-up, and it will also be exciting to see if Hülkenberg can still score some points, and at least finish within the top ten. The battle in the midfield will also be fierce, as always these days, and possibly even more so since it is a short-lap race at this circuit. This could result in a lot of action beyond expectations. Personally, I am very much looking forward to the race, anyway.

By: Wim G. Vandebilt