Under the microscope | All the necessary ingredients are present for a weekend of chaos

Next weekend, Red Bull Racing will have the chance to break its team record of nine consecutive wins. The Austrian team has won everything since the 2022 season finale but will have its hands full trying to maintain the maximum score at the Red Bull Ring this weekend as well. In Onder de loep, MaximumGPnews highlights the five main storylines heading into the Grand Prix weekend.

1. Will Red Bull strike back after miss in 2022?

In the years when Red Bull had to be content with the occasional victory, the Grands Prix in Monaco, Mexico, and Austria were precisely the events that Verstappen could look forward to. The Dutchman cleverly finished second in 2016, just after his debut with the Austrian team. Two years later, Verstappen won for the first time at the Red Bull Ring, and in 2019 he took the first victory for the team with a Honda engine in the back. Two races were held in Austria in 2021, bringing Verstappen's win total at the Red Bull Ring to four.

Last year, then, victory seemed a formality for Verstappen, who also proved fastest every time in the previous races. However, Red Bull made a mistake and chose too aggressive a set-up, resulting in excessive tire wear. In the race, Ferrari was clearly stronger, and Verstappen owed his second place behind Charles Leclerc mainly to Carlos Sainz's technical problems. Red Bull will not want to repeat this mistake this year.

2. Rain seems a certainty

Austria is a country known for its green environment, caused by frequent rain showers. However, since Formula 1 returned to the Red Bull Ring in 2014, no race has been held in wet conditions. Chances are that this coming weekend this will change. According to forecasts, downpours are expected on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The biggest chance of rain is on Saturday.

This is how rain showers seem to be haunting Formula One in recent weeks. The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix was cancelled due to flooding, followed by rain in Monaco only in the closing stages of the Grand Prix. In Spain, it rained mostly in free practice, while the Canadian Grand Prix was preceded by an exciting and wet qualifying session. The drivers who have come out on top in the rain in recent weeks are notably Verstappen and Fernando Alonso, but rain can also provide an opportunity for drivers such as Nico Hülkenberg, Esteban Ocon, and Lando Norris. As recently as 2016, the German started second in Austria after a rainout before Q3 on Saturday.

3. Does the sprint race favor Verstappen now?

Statistically, Verstappen is still the driver who took the most points in sprint races, but the last sprint races did not go so well for the Dutchman. In Baku he finished only third after contact with George Russell at the start, while in Brazil last year Verstappen and Nicolas Latifi were the only ones driving on medium tires, resulting in a fourth place finish. In addition, a sprint race means there is less time to optimize the set-up, and that caused Red Bull's tire wear in both Austria and Brazil last year to be far too high.

That preparation time could be lower than ever this year if it rains during the only free practice as well. So it is quite possible that teams will go into the rest of the weekend fairly blind when it comes to tuning, and then Red Bull could just guess wrong, too. A sprint race win is not a Grand Prix victory, but in a season like 2023, drivers like Leclerc and Alonso will also be happy with a Saturday victory.

4. Does Sergio Pérez finally manage to regain his form?

Pérez started the season better than ever before, with victories in Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan. However, the past three Grand Prix weekends have been disastrous for the Mexican. In these three weekends, Pérez scored fewer points than Verstappen, Hamilton, Alonso, Sainz, Russell and Ocon. In addition, the Mexican failed to make Q3 on Saturdays, and we have not seen him on the podium since the Miami Grand Prix on May 7th.

Text continues below the image.

The Mexican faced difficult conditions in recent weeks. In Monaco qualifying, Red Bull had no advantage over the other teams, and Pérez made a silly mistake in Q1, while it had rained just before Spanish qualifying, leaving Pérez struggling in the low temperatures. In Canada, the Mexican was not strong enough in the rain. This weekend he does not have to count on easier conditions with only one free practice and the threat of rain. Last year Pérez crashed out in Austria after a collision, and in 2021 he also failed to make the podium for Red Bull in both races. Few hopeful statistics, then.

5. Who will be Red Bull's biggest competitor?

This season Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston Martin, or rather Fernando Alonso, alternate as best of the rest behind Red Bull, or rather Max Verstappen. In Canada, it was Alonso's turn, while Mercedes impressed in Spain. However, Red Bull team advisor Helmut Marko seems to take more account of Ferrari's team, which thus also triumphed in Austria in 2022. The altitude may also play a role here: the Red Bull Ring is some 700 meters higher, making it only lower than the circuits in Mexico and Brazil.

With little preparation time and expected rain, Verstappen should count on a larger-than-average challenge. The straights and short corners play into the Ferrari car's hands, and so competition should be expected, particularly from Charles Leclerc, but also from teammate Carlos Sainz. Ferrari's last victory was at last year's Austrian Grand Prix, so the team will definitely return to the European country with confidence.